Projected ENSO Teleconnection Changes in CMIP6

The El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has far reaching impacts through atmospheric teleconnections, which make it a prominent driver of global interannual climate variability. As such, whether and how these teleconnections may change due to projected future remains is topic high societal relevance. Here, ENSO Surface Temperature (TAS) Precipitation (PR) between the historical high-emission simulations are compared in more than 31 models from Phase 6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We find significant (2081–2100) TAS PR teleconnection changes over approximately 50% teleconnected regions December-February relative 1950–2014. large majority suggest that an amplification will occur, however, some also display dampening. Further this, many scale with warming level, higher leading larger changes.